The race to create the Amazon or Instagram of cryptocurrency

The race to create the Amazon or Instagram of cryptocurrency

  • Although the extreme hype around blockchain and cryptocurrency today attracts hucksters and scammers, investor Chris Dixon and Coinbase founder Fred Ehrsam argue that the significance of the rise of cryptocurrencies is undeniable.
  • Just as Amazon created the first web-native e-commerce site, and Instagram the first mobile-native photo site, somebody's going to create the first blockchain-native business.
  • What could it be? Dixon and Ehrsam had no predictions, but contributor Eric Jackson has some ideas.


What will be the first native app that taps into the power

of the blockchain, cryptocurrencies and tokens? That's the provocative question posed last week by venture capital investor Chris Dixon and Coinbase co-founder Fred Ehrsam in Andreessen Horowitz's tech podcast "Why Crypto Tokens Matter."

Although the extreme hype around blockchain and cryptocurrency today attracts hucksters and scammers, Dixon and Ehrsam argue that the significance of the rise of cryptocurrencies is undeniable. The analogy they use to explain the significance is this: in the way that the web allowed for the programmability of information for the first time, cryptocurrencies and tokens allow for the programmability of money or value for the first time. The development of the web allowed for new businesses operating at a global scale which the world had never seen before. They believe cryptocurrencies will offer the same potential.

However, Amazon didn't become a $500 billion business overnight. It's taken over 20 years to get to its current size. Dixon and Ehrsam argue that it required the development of a whole ecosystem around Amazon and other web companies – including web servers, databases, logistics, and payment systems – for them to maximize their potential. There will be the same need for a massive build out in infrastructure for cryptocurrencies and tokens to reach the same potential.

But the most intriguing idea in the podcast is how both Dixon and Ehrsam agree that the companies which have the greatest chance to capture the most value with every big wave of technology – such as web, mobile, and now crypto – are the ones who "burn the boats" to yesterday's technology and go all-in on being the first native app for the new wave. For instance, Amazon set the example when it came to native web apps for e-commerce. Unlike Barnes & Noble, they didn't try to keep one foot in traditional retail with their brick-and-mortar stores and one in the web world. They showed the world what a total focus on e-commerce looked like.

The mobile-only world arrived 10 years ago with the unveiling of the Apple iPhone. However, the initial mobile apps were modeled after websites – cramming a large amount of data fit for a web page on to a tinier mobile screen. Flickr was the dominant photo site in 2007. It created a mobile app for itself but still was geared to you going to your computer and uploading photos. It wasn't until Instagram came along when the world saw what a mobile-only photo app looked like. For a long time, there wasn't even a webpage for Instagram. Users flocked to it, and Facebook bought it for what seems like a bargain price of $1 billion in 2012. It's still the dominant photo-sharing app today

What this business might look like

So what will be the first "blockchain-only" native business? Dixon and Ehrsam don't have any predictions of what that business will be or when it will arrive. But it's helpful to think about what such a business could look like, if you're an investor like me and interested in keeping your eyes open to find out what to look for.

To me, what's most interesting about the whole advent of cryptocurrencies in the past year is Etheruem and how it allows for "smart contracts" to program the relationship of money between parties. The basic idea is that, if something happens, then someone should get paid automatically. You can imagine intricate conditional patterns that allow for people to be generate value for themselves automatically while stripping out a bunch of intermediaries which have existed up until now taking out a toll at every step along the way. The businesses that can pop up, go after big markets, and put these old intermediaries out of business should have a big leg up on future competition.

Here are some ideas of possible businesses to look for in the years ahead (and invest in if you're lucky):

  • The first all-blockchain insurance company that only issues policies in smart contract form.
  • Human futures. On my recent podcast with Balaji Srinivasan, he spoke about the company Upstart. It was founded a few years ago with the idea of actually allowing you to invest in an individual's potential future income stream. You could decide to lend to them based on their background and ask for a share in their upside career (almost like an agent). Smart contracts would make that business model feasible. Upstart pivoted away from that model a few years ago but it will be possible in the future.
  • We already have have online law firms like LegalZoom which allow you to more easily incorporate your business for example. What about a law service only focused on creating smart contracts without a lot of expensive overhead of top laywers running around billing by the hour?
  • Why not a LinkedIn career service focused on matching short-term gigs that tap in to your specific expertise and pay you in some cryptocurrency?
  • The first institutional investment bank allowing only blockchain-based trading of securities with immediate settlement. They could also finally crack the IPO code for the perfect "dutch auction" of new issues with a perfect matching of buyers and sellers to the optimal amount of money raised goes to the issuer, instead of the investment banking clients.
  • The first blockchain-based rewards system that rewards participants with special offers if they allow advertisers see when they perform certain tasks or reach certain levels.
  • The first blockchain-based mortgage lender or credit card issuer.
  • With the whole Equifax scandal of the past few weeks, why not a blockchain-based (hyper secure) credit bureau to replace the status quo credit bureaus of today with a promise of better confidentiality and better credit information?

We need to get beyond the Jamie Dimon type of discussion about bitcoin being a fraud or the speculative bubble around cryptocurrencies. Instead, we need to look at the underlying technology around these currencies, especially smart contracts that are programmable and enforceable. These contracts will allow for many new disruptive businesses to be formed on top of them. If you find the first new "native app" to be built on top of the blockchain in a big product category, it's likely that you'll find an attractive long-term investment.

Chuck Reynolds

Marketing Dept
Please click either Link to Learn more about -Bitcoin.
Interested or have Questions. Call me 559-474-4614

Bitcoin could be heading to $6,000 by year-end but brace for volatility

Bitcoin could be heading to $6,000 by year-end but brace for volatility, experts say

  • Bitcoin could hit $6,000 by year-end, experts said
  • But investors should brace for more volatility as another "fork" could take place
  • Bitcoin rose more than 74 percent in the third quarter


Bitcoin could be heading to $6,000 by year-end, some experts say 

Bitcoin could rally nearly 40 percent to hit $6,000 before the end of the year but investors should brace for more volatility, according to industry experts. The cryptocurrency was trading around $4,333 on Tuesday. The third quarter has been one of the most eventful in bitcoin's history. It is up over 74 percent in the September quarter, with a shifting landscape in regulation and developments in the underlying technology taking place in the last three months. Here's what has happened so far and what experts think is coming next.

Infighting and split

Bitcoin faced record-high transaction times due to congestion on the network. To solve that, the amount of data that could be processed in one transaction needed to increase. But the community was divided on how to solve this. This resulted in a "fork" earlier this year that split bitcoin in two. Bitcoin remained, but a new crytocurrency called bitcoin cash was created.

On the core bitcoin network, an upgrade known as SegWit2X was implemented, which would help increase the transaction speed. The full back story can be read here. Bitcoin's market cap is about 10 times that of bitcoin cash. Since it started trading at the beginning of August, bitcoin cash has risen to nearly $900 before falling to current levels of around $402, according to

Shift of power to Japan

China was once the dominant driver of the bitcoin price. But regulators in the country have been cracking down on the cryptocurrency, banning so-called initial coin offerings (ICOs) where companies raise money through cryptocurrencies. China's major bitcoin exchanges OKCoin, Huobi and BTCChina have halted trading for customers on the mainland. At the start of the quarter, Chinese yuan accounted for around 17 percent of bitcoin trade globally, according to industry website CryptoCompare. By the end of the quarter, it was less than 3 percent.

Meanwhile, Japan has been more open to cryptocurrencies. Regulators there legalized bitcoin and major retailers have begun accepting it as payments. And last week, Japan's Financial Services Agency (FSA) officially recognized 11 companies as registered cryptocurrency exchange operators. CNBC reported that major Japanese banks are looking into creating their own digital currency called the J-Coin, with backing from major institutions.

Record high

The third quarter also saw bitcoin hit an all-time high of $5,013.91, according to data from CoinDesk. Regulatory support in some markets, as well as rising interest from institutional investors, has helped boost the value. $6,000 bitcoin in sight?"Throughout the year we've been predicting the bitcoin price will surpass $5,000 and creep closer to $6,000 by year's end. That prediction is looking more in line with market sentiment these days," Thomas Glucksmann, head of APAC business development at Gatecoin, a cryptocurrency exchange, told CNBC by email.

But he warned investors to get ready for more volatility in November. This is because some in the bitcoin community might move to reject SegWit2X. This could create another split in bitcoin, and potentially create another cryptocurrency. Charles Hayter, CEO of industry website CryptoCompare, said that bitcoin could hit $5,000 by the end of the year. This will be supported by increased regulation to cryptocurrencies and ICOs. "Bitcoin's biggest price catalyst is regulation. Japan has breathed life into the price and as the fog of uncertainty clears in other jurisdictions, clarity on regulation will release a break on the price," Hayter told CNBC by email.

Chuck Reynolds

Marketing Dept
Please click either Link to Learn more about -Bitcoin.
Interested or have Questions. Call me 559-474-4614

Ukraine Turns to Blockchain to Boost Land Ownership Transparency

Ukraine Turns to Blockchain to Boost Land Ownership Transparency


  • Move to be important element of land reform, official says
  • Ukraine picks BitFury to launch platform, following Georgia

Ukraine will use blockchain technology to manage its registry of farmland, saying its current system is vulnerable to fraud that leads to conflicts over ownership. The move will increase transparency and boost trust in the registry, First Deputy Agriculture Minister Maksym Martynyuk said at a news conference in Kiev on Tuesday. Transparency International — which ranks Ukraine 131st-worst of 176 countries in its corruption perception index — will be an international auditor of the project, he told reporters.

Land reform is one of the requirements of the International Monetary Fund, Ukraine’s biggest creditor, which has held back payments from a $17.5 billion bailout as the country has failed to meet terms. The government says establishing a comprehensive, transparent and secure registry is necessary to proceed on one element of the overhaul, lifting a ban on the sale of farmland. The switch to blockchain, though the biggest hurdle remains the lack of political support, according to the Agriculture Ministry.

“Land reform is a formation consisting of many bricks,” Martynyuk said. “And this is one of the important bricks.” Blockchain, the technology that underpins virtual currencies, allows users to make simultaneous changes to databases across a distributed network, which could allow land-registry entries made in one location to be immediately visible across the system, adding to transparency. Ukraine’s government picked BitFury Group Ltd., which produces equipment for mining virtual currencies, to launch a platform for registering land titles, following the experience of fellow ex-Soviet republic Georgia last year.

Chuck Reynolds

Marketing Dept
Please click either Link to Learn more about -Bitcoin.
Interested or have Questions. Call me 559-474-4614

Dubai just got its first official cryptocurrency

AngelList Creator Naval Ravikant Backs S&P-Style Cryptocurrency Fund

AngelList Creator Naval Ravikant Backs S&P-Style Cryptocurrency Fund



A startup led by former Facebook and Google employees is launching a cryptocurrency index fund.

Backed by AngelList founder Naval Ravikant, Bitwise Asset Management is today coming out of stealth mode to reveal its first product, the Bitwise Hold10 Private Index Fund – a market cap-weighted basket of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by network value. With the launch, investors who participate in the fund will own shares meant to reflect the value of the underlying assets, allowing them to achieve what BitWise argues is a broad exposure to the cryptocurrency market.

The fund's co-founders are Hunter Horsley, a former Facebook and Instagram project manager and Wharton graduate, and Hong Kim, a Google veteran and former Korean military software security expert. One of the key goals of the fund, Horsley said is to create a way for investors to gain exposure to cryptocurrency with the ease and economy of investing in an S&P 500 index fund.

Horsley told CoinDesk:

"We want to create a meaningful and secure way to own a portfolio of cryptocurrency. We feel that, today, it's too hard and it's too expensive."

Bitwise's basic thesis breaks down rather neatly along those lines – particularly the assessment of the founders that existing investing options now present significant challenges to retail investors. According to Horsley, prior to March of 2017, investors could gain broad exposure to the cryptocurrency asset class simply by owning bitcoin, which until then represented 85 percent of the total market value. However, with the rise in the total market capitalization of the various different networks to more than $100 billion, he contends that achieving such exposure now requires more active management and, given the nascent stage of the market, specialized expertise.

Fees and features

But amidst a boom in the number of investment options available, Horsely intends to compete on more than simply market knowledge. Notably, the fund charges just 2 percent on an annualized basis. Further, it does not charge a fee on profits, making it more reasonably priced than alternatives, he claims. By comparison, other funds are charging investors a traditional hedge fund-style "two and twenty" fee, which includes a sizable 20 percent fee charged against any profits the fund generates. While the fund requires investors be both accredited and based in the U.S., the minimum investment is a relatively modest $10,000.

Also, in what he argued puts the fund in contrast to a wave of other hedge funds launched over the summer, Horsley said Bitwise will seek a passive investment strategy. While other funds actively trade crypto assets in an attempt to generate a larger return, he said BitWise will simply hold a portfolio of assets that represents the broader market.

Another advantage, Horsley said, is that retail investors won't have to take ownership of any cryptocurrencies themselves, or to devise a strategy to ensure the security of their investments. "We are 100 percent 'cold storage'," he said, in reference to the way the fund stores its assets in a more secure, offline environment. The only time the assets will come out of cold storage, he added, is when the fund rebalances itself – meaning the times when the fund must buy or sell coins in order to reflect the same relative market capitalizations of the market more broadly.

Horsley explained:


"I think for some people it can be feasible to store things in hardware wallets, and do it themselves, but there are, of course, a lot of risks to doing that. I think, from a security perspective, having a titled share – the assets of which are then backed by our storage – is really helpful."

Chuck Reynolds

Marketing Dept
Please click either Link to Learn more about -Bitcoin.
Interested or have Questions. Call me 559-474-4614

Dragonchain, Originally Developed at Disney, Opens Limited Supply Initial Coin Offering (ICO)

Originally Developed at Disney,
Opens Limited Supply
Initial Coin Offering (ICO)

Dragonchain, the blockchain platform originally developed at Disney
SEATTLE, Oct. 2, 2017 /PRNewswire/ — Dragonchain, the blockchain platform originally developed at Disney, opens its public Initial Coin Offering (ICO) today, the one-year anniversary of Disney releasing it as open source. Running Oct. 2 – Nov. 2, the tokens issued during the ICO (Dragons) will provide access to Dragonchain platform services, project incubation, and professional services to support enterprises, start-ups, and entrepreneurs building applications on the platform.

Dragonchain simplifies the integration of real business applications on a blockchain and provides features such as easy integration, protection of business data and operations, currency agnosticism, and multi-currency support. The company also provides professional services to build-out development and successful tokenization ecosystems with long term value utilizing an incubation model. Please visit and contact us at

"Our vision for Dragonchain is a secure and flexible blockchain platform paired with a crowd scaled incubator," said Joe Roets, Founder and CEO of Dragonchain, Inc. "The system is modeled to create feedback loops and accelerate blockchain projects and market success." Dragonchain was originally developed at Disney's Seattle office between 2015 and 2016 under the name "Disney Private Blockchain Platform." The project launched as open-source by Disney on October 2, 2016, and is now maintained by the Dragonchain Foundation.

In addition, Dragonchain officially announces the formation of its Advisory Board to provide strategic guidance on future endeavors. "Dragonchain's context-based approval ushers in a new era of inter-linked blockchain databases, multi-dimensional datastores that scale to customer requirements," said Jeff Garzik, co-founder at Bloq and Dragonchain Advisory Board member. "Joe and the Dragonchain team are bringing a unique solution to market – the latest in blockchain technology, combining ease of integration, cloud scalability and secure grounding in public blockchain networks."

Dragonchain Advisory Board members include:

Jeff Garzik, co-founder, Bloq
A futurist, bitcoin entrepreneur and software engineer, Jeff is co- founder and CEO of Bloq, a code-for-hire service that delivers enterprise grade blockchain technology to leading companies worldwide.

Matthew Roszak, co-founder, Bloq and founding partner, Tally Capital
Co-founder at Bloq and founding partner at Tally Capital, Matthew is an avid supporter and investor in the exciting technology frontier of blockchain.

Ed Fries, tech industry advisor and co-founder of the original Xbox
Ed joined Microsoft in 1986, and as a VP, spent 10 years as one of the early developers of Excel and Word. He left the Office team to pursue his passion for interactive entertainment and created Microsoft Game Studios. Over the next eight years he grew the team from 50 people to over 1200, published over 100 games, co-founded the Xbox Project, making Microsoft one of the leaders in the video game business.

Collin LaHay (Collin Crypto), Gambit founder
Blockchain expert, Bitcoin angel investor, ICO advisor, founder at Gambit, entrepreneur, internet marketer and founder of a search engine marketing business offering.

Tom Bush – former assistant director, FBI CJIS Division
National security, homeland security and law enforcement subject matter expert with over 33 years in federal law enforcement and owner at Tom Bush Consulting.

Chris Boscolo – Founder, lifeID
A specialist in cloud-computing, Amazon Web Services, network security, TCP/IP network protocols embedded systems and Linux kernel drivers, Chris has more than 20 years' experience building commercially successful products. "With increased concerns around security and privacy, blockchain is a transformative technology," said Tom Bush, owner at Tom Bush Consulting and Dragonchain Advisory Board member. "Dragonchain is positioned to be a notable player in this sector."

About Dragonchain
Dragonchain simplifies the integration of real business applications on a blockchain and provides features such as easy integration, protection of business data and operations, currency agnosticism, and multi-currency support. The company also provides professional services to build-out development and successful tokenization ecosystems with long term value utilizing an incubation model.

Chuck Reynolds

Marketing Dept
Please click either Link to Learn more about -Bitcoin.
Interested or have Questions. Call me 559-474-4614

A Victory For Bitcoin

A Victory For Bitcoin


While Bitcoin remains highly speculative

– I think it can continue to strengthen from here.  Bitcoin is so volatile that I want to reiterate my belief that it only belongs in your portfolio as part of your highly speculative allocation (link).  I also think it is worth reviewing my 3 Rules of Bitcoin (link).

The bullish case is that Bitcoin survived the recent bearish case so well.

Back on September 15th it appeared to me as though not only China, but a number of public figures were trying to crack down on Bitcoin (link).  It was successful at first, as Bitcoin continued its decline, dropping from over $5,000 to as low as $3,000.  Bitcoin has rebounded sharply since then. The ‘evangelists’ of bitcoin argue that the fact it isn't controlled by governments is precisely why you should own it.  Bitcoin is meant to be function outside of the realm of central banks and governments.  Bitcoin seems to have navigated this recent crackdown with great success.

By passing the recent test with flying colors, Bitcoin should attract some new investors.  There are many investors who have watched the rally in cryptocurrencies from the sidelines because they have concerns about the ability of cryptocurrencies to deliver as advertised.  It seems likely that some of these investors will dip their toe in the water now – creating new demand for cryptocurrencies in the near term. This additional new demand should help keep prices rising. If there were easier ways for 'mainstream' investors to get involved in Bitcoin (like ETFs) the rally would be even stronger.

The cynic in me, needs to point out that many people have strong incentives to prop up the price of Bitcoin.  Bitcoin miners, in particular, come to mind.  Bitcoin mining remains very profitable at these prices.  In a world where there are no rules (Rule #2 of my 3 Rules of Bitcoin) we have to consider that some of this rebound may be driven by those who have the most to gain.  That incentive and risk of manipulation is always an issue in thinly traded markets, but I think it is an even greater concern in the sometimes murky world of cryptocurrencies.While I still don't have a strong conviction on the long term viability of cryptocurrencies, I do think it is impressive that they recovered from this China crackdown, which is positive for prices in the near term.

Chuck Reynolds

Marketing Dept
Please click either Link to Learn more about -Bitcoin.
Interested or have Questions. Call me 559-474-4614

Finance Gurus Who Believe Bitcoin May Be Worthless

Finance Gurus
Who Believe Bitcoin May Be Worthless

It may be the year of the cryptocurrency,
but not everyone's a fan.


If 2017 goes down in the books as anything,

it'll probably be "the year of the cryptocurrency." Headed by bitcoin, the aggregate cryptocurrency market cap grew by more than 800% at one point this year.  Bitcoin comprises nearly half of the aggregate cryptocurrency market cap by itself. By comparison, it's taken decades for the broad-based

it'll probably be "the year of the cryptocurrency." Headed by bitcoin, the aggregate cryptocurrency market cap grew by more than 800% at one point this year.  Bitcoin comprises nearly half of the aggregate cryptocurrency market cap by itself. By comparison, it's taken decades for the broad-based S&P 500 to deliver a similar return.

Beam me up, bitcoin

Why the sudden surge in digital currencies?

Some would say it has to do with the blockchain technology that underlies most cryptocurrencies. Blockchain is nothing more than the digital decentralized ledger that records transactions without the need for a financial intermediary like a bank. Because these networks are often open source, it's practically impossible to alter data while going undetected, which makes blockchain a potential upgrade in safety and security.

  More than 150 organizations are currently testing out

a version of Ethereum's blockchain network via the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance, and bitcoin recently completed an upgrade to its network known as SegWit2x, which is designed to boost capacity, while lowering transaction fees and settlement times. It should help bitcoin appeal to big business in much the same way Ethereum has thus far.

The falling U.S. dollar has been another catalyst for bitcoin and other digital currencies in 2017. The dollar hit more than a two-year low against the euro, and more than a one-year low against a host of other currencies, in recent weeks. While that's bound to put a smile on President Trump's face, as it should boost U.S. exports, it's bad news for investors who are seeing their cash devalue relative to other currencies. Traditionally, investors seek the safety of a finite resource like gold as a store of value when the dollar drops. Lately, though, some have turned instead to bitcoin, since it, too, is considered to be a finite resource. Bitcoin's protocols limit the number of coins that can be mined to 21 million.

Momentum is another catalyst that can't be overlooked, albeit it's far less tangible than the two other catalysts. Since bitcoin isn't recognized as legal tender by most governments (Japan recognized bitcoin as legal tender earlier this year), financial institutions are often barred from trading or holding it in their investment portfolios. That leaves bitcoin's pricing predominantly up to retail investors, who are far likelier to trade based on emotion than logic. It's quite possible the "don't miss the boat" mentality has been pushing bitcoin higher.

Bitcoin may be worthless according to these well-respected finance moguls

While numerous bitcoin enthusiasts and pundits have come out with price targets of $10,000, $25,000, and even $1 million on bitcoin, other respected finance moguls have taken an exceptionally bearish view on bitcoin. In fact, a few are unsure if it holds any value at all.

Warren Buffett

That's right — the most revered stock investor in the world, and the greatest buy-and-hold investor of our generation, believes bitcoin to be something of a sham. In an interview with CNBC back in 2014,

Here's what Buffett had to say: 

Stay away from it. It's a mirage, basically. It's a method of transmitting money. It's a very effective way of transmitting money, and you can do it anonymously and all that. A check is a way of transmitting money, too. Are checks worth a whole lot of money? Just because they can transmit money? I hope bitcoin becomes a better way to do it. But you can replicate it a bunch of different ways. The idea that it has some huge intrinsic value is just a joke, in my view.

Admittedly, Buffett hasn't exactly been correct about bitcoin, with the digital currency significantly increasing in value since his opinion back in 2014. Nevertheless, Buffett raises an exceptionally good point that modes of payment, and even blockchain technology, have a very low barrier to entry. There isn't much to protect these digital currencies against competitors entering the space.

Jamie Dimon

Jamie Dimon, the current CEO of the largest bank in the U.S., JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), might be bitcoin's biggest critic of all. A few weeks ago, in an interview with CNBC at its annual Delivering Alpha conference, Dimon didn't mince his words when referring to bitcoin as a "fraud." Said Dimon, bitcoin is "just not a real thing." At a separate conference earlier in the day,

Dimon also said:

It's worse than tulip bulbs. It won't end well. Someone is going to get killed. Currencies have legal support. It will blow up.

In addition to this commentary, Dimon noted that if any of JPMorgan Chase's money managers were to trade or hold bitcoin, they would be "fired in a second." It's pretty evident that bitcoin represents a threat to traditional banking if it continues to grow in popularity, but Dimon may also be correct that without any sort of central backing, legitimizing digital currencies like bitcoin may prove impossible.

 Paul Krugman

Lastly, Nobel Prize-winning economist, professor, and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman has had serious doubts about the long-term survival of bitcoin for years. Back in 2013, Krugman penned an op-ed for The New York Times in which

he said:  

So far almost all of the bitcoin discussion has been positive economic — can this actually work? And I have to say that I'm still deeply unconvinced. To be successful, money must be both a medium of exchange and a reasonably stable store of value. And it remains completely unclear why bitcoin should be a stable store of value.

You'll note that while bitcoin has been the asset of choice instead of gold as of late for some investors, it's not a true finite resource like gold. Bitcoin's protocols could always be changed, meaning more than 21 million coins could eventually be mined. Plus, without government backing, there's nothing placing a floor underneath the value of bitcoin. Though all three of these finance gurus have been dead wrong about bitcoin thus far, I'm mostly in agreement with their theses. Bitcoin has been driven higher by emotion, the technology behind it is relatively easily to duplicate, and its decentralized nature makes legitimizing the currency all that much tougher. We very well could be on the verge of a bitcoin bubble.

Stocks we like better than JPMorgan Chase

When investing geniuses David and Tom Gardner have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the newsletter they have run for over a decade, Motley Fool Stock Advisor, has tripled the market.* David and Tom just revealed what they believe are the ten best stocks for investors to buy right now… and JPMorgan Chase wasn't one of them! That's right — they think these 10 stocks are even better buys. (Sean Williams has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. )

This Stock Could Be Like Buying Amazon in 1997

Imagine if you had bought Amazon in 1997… a $5,000 investment then would be worth almost $1 million today. You can't go back and buy Amazon 20 years ago… but we've uncovered what our analysts think is the next-best thing: A special stock with mind-boggling growth potential. With hundreds of thousands of business customers already signed up, this stock has been described as "strikingly similar to an early"

Chuck Reynolds

Marketing Dept
Please click either Link to Learn more about -Bitcoin.
Interested or have Questions. Call me 559-474-4614

Bitcoin Can Fuel Your Retirement

Bitcoin Can Fuel Your Retirement

Can this cryptocurrency add security to your golden years? With most Americans believing their retirement investments are inadequately diversified, it may be high time for them to dip a toe in Bitcoin IRAs.


Is Bitcoin In A Bubble? Check The NVT Ratio

Is Bitcoin In A Bubble?
Check The NVT Ratio


February of this year,

I tweeted a chart that presented the idea of a PE ratio for Bitcoin, something I temporarily called MTV Ratio before my buddy Chris Burniske suggested the less confusing term of NVT Ratio (Network Value to Transactions Ratio). Later in May, Chris was the first to present NVT Ratio at Token Summit 2017. Subsequently, this ratio has been mentioned in blog and media articles across the web. In my original tweet, I promised an article; it lay unwritten until now.

The Idea Behind NVT Ratio

In traditional stock markets, price-earnings ratio (PE Ratio) has been a long standing tool for valuing companies. It’s simply the ratio of a company’s share price to its equivalent earnings per share. A high ratio describes either over valuation or a company in high growth. What would be the equivalent in Bitcoin-land? We have a price per token, but it’s not a company so there are no earnings to do a ratio. However since Bitcoin at its essence is a payments and store of value network, we can look to the money flowing through its network as a proxy to "company earnings”.

Bitcoin’s Network Value closely tracks the money (Transaction Value) flowing through its blockchain.As you can see the value transmitted on the Bitcoin blockchain is closely tied to its network valuation. The idea that we can use the money flowing through the network as a proxy for network valuation is valid.We can express this as a ratio. I call it NVT Ratio, short for Network Value to Transactions Ratio. Below is a historic chart of Bitcoin’s NVT ratio. A live and interactive chart is available on my site at's NVT Ratio is its Network Value divided by the Transaction Value flowing through its blockchain.  Estimation of daily on-chain transaction value provided by

How To Use NVT Ratio

A High NVT Ratio Can Indicate High Speculative Value

Networks under high growth exhibit high NVT Ratio.We can see in the early years of the Bitcoin network, growth was very steep. This resulted in the markets valuing the network high in comparison to the actual transaction value flowing through the network. In other words, we're seeing a network growing explosively which then demands a premium valuation based on future potential. This is very similar to what we see in PE ratios in the high growth stages of young companies.

Using NVT Ratio To Detect Bubbles

Predicting a bubble before the fact is rather elusive as a price explosion does not necessarily mean the asset is in a bubble. We can only determine this after the peak when the market reassesses the new valuation and we see if the price  consolidates or crashes. For example Ethereum’s valuation during Q1 of 2016 grew by a factor of 15x from $70 million to well over $1 billion. To the uninitiated, it looked like a bubble, yet there was no crash, its new valuation was sustained, thus it proved not to be. Similarly, NVT Ratio can not reliably determine a bubble ahead of time, but it is very useful for discerning between a crash or a consolidation after the price has peaked. It can determine this relatively quickly.

After an explosive price climb, the price consolidates or crashes.

During a price explosion there’s a short term flurry of trader activity and new users hitting the network which serves to drive transactional value through the network. It’s only after the frenzy has subsided do we see whether the value flowing through the network has kept in tandem with its higher valuation. Sometimes it does (it’s a consolidation), and in other times it does not (hence, a crash). Using the NVT ratio we can detect the difference between consolidation and bubbles very visibly. If the NVT ratio stays within a normal range, we are not in bubble territory. If it climbs above the normal range, it's a sign that the transactional activity is not sustaining the new valuation and we can expect a lengthy price correction.

Bitcoin's two bubble detected by NVT Ratio

The chart above shows the NVT ratio in action detecting two of Bitcoin's historic bubbles. In 2011 and early 2013, Bitcoin exploded in price followed by NVT ratio rising above the normal range. These were deemed bubbles under NVT ratio analysis. Subsequently we saw lengthy 92% and 83% corrections in price.

A Bubble That Wasn’t A Bubble

NVT ratio called out the first "bubble" of 2013 as a consolidation move.Of particular interest is the first rapid price rise of 2013 (highlighted with a rectangle in the chart above). We saw a 83% consolidation from peak to trough. It's interesting as the NVT ratio did not rise high enough to signify a bubble, yet you would think a 83% correction would be fit to be called a bubble, right?

Not so! If we dig into the network’s undergrowth, we find that the value transmitted by the network was high enough to keep the NVT ratio within normal range. Though the markets sold off until the price experienced a sudden dip that was 83% off the peak, that dip was very short lived and the long range chart reveals a pattern more akin to a consolidation which completed quicky. This is a case where the NVT ratio, had it been around back then, was telling the markets it was undervaluing the network at the peak of market fear.

Hey NVT, Are We In A Bubble Today?

At the time of writing, Bitcoin's NVT Ratio suggests we are not in a bubble.Now for the golden moment – let's apply the NVT ratio to test the Bitcoin's market at the time of writing. We've suffered a large pullback from $81b network value to a low of $49b, with market fearing the potential onset of a bear season. As we can see in the chart above, NVT ratio is within normal bounds. NVT ratio is saying this is a price consolidation. The transaction value flowing through Bitcoin's network is perfectly healthy and supports the currenct valuation.

NVT Ratio On Other Crypto-Assets?

The question arises, can NVT Ratio be used as a valuation metric for other crypto-assets? My tentative answer, subject to further study, would be “usually, but not always”. At its essence, Bitcoin’s NVT ratio is a comparison of how much the network is being valued to how much the network is being used. If you’re applying the NVT ratio to a different network, the value transmitted on-chain needs to be a good representation of how much the network is being used. This is not always the case.


Similar to Bitcoin, Ethereum's Network Value closely tracks the money flowing through its blockchain.Ethereum launched in 2015, as a smart contract computing network that's fast become the most popular platform for token sales this year. Since the token sales conducted on Ethereum require payment in Ether, there's a very strong correlation between the transactional value and network value as seen above. Ethereum is only two years old and its high growth phase. It will take some time before its NVT ratio settles into a meaningful long term range for bubble detection.

Currencies That Provide Staking Rewards

Networks like Decred and Dash have transactional activity resulting from staking, a process where stakeholders of a network lock up and collateralise their tokens to provide services to the network in return for revenue. This revenue flowing back to the stakeholders is not reflective of the network’s utility and will skew the results coming from the NVT ratio. For these types of networks it would make sense to provide a corrected NVT ratio which subtracts the transactional value resulting from staking which is numerically predictable.

Fungible Networks

Private and fungible currencies like Zcash and Monero hide some, or all of their value transmitted on-chain so it’s impossible to determine their NVT ratio accurately.

Chuck Reynolds

Marketing Dept
Please click either Link to Learn more about -Bitcoin.
Interested or have Questions. Call me 559-474-4614